VOLATILITY IN THE CONSUMER PACKAGED GOODS INDUSTRY — A SIMULATION BASED STUDY
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Sengupta, Abhijit and Glavin, Stephen E. (2010) VOLATILITY IN THE CONSUMER PACKAGED GOODS INDUSTRY — A SIMULATION BASED STUDY Advances in Complex Systems, 13 (04). pp. 579-605.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0219525910002724
Abstract
The volatility in a CPG market is modeled using a bottom-up simulation approach and validated against disaggregated supermarket transactions data. The simulation uses independent agents, each agent representing unique households in the data. A simple behavioral model incorporates household preferences for product attributes and prices. Our validation strategy tests the model predictions at both macro and micro levels and benchmarks the performance in each against a random choice model. The model significantly outperforms the benchmark at both levels. At the macro level, choices made by heterogenous agents accurately captures the volatility in market shares over time. This accuracy at the macro level is driven by the accuracy of predictions at the micro household level SKU and attribute choice.
| Item Type: | Article | |||||||||
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| Divisions : | Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Surrey Business School | |||||||||
| Authors : |
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| Date : | 2010 | |||||||||
| DOI : | 10.1142/S0219525910002724 | |||||||||
| Uncontrolled Keywords : | Complex system; validation; market dynamics; social simulation | |||||||||
| Additional Information : | Embargo OK Metadata Pending | |||||||||
| Depositing User : | James Marshall | |||||||||
| Date Deposited : | 19 Aug 2020 14:01 | |||||||||
| Last Modified : | 19 Aug 2020 14:01 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/858440 |
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