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Dynamics of Salmonella transmission on a British pig grower-finisher farm: A stochastic model

Hill, Andrew, Snary, E.L., Arnold, M.E., Alban, L. and Cook, A.J.C. (2008) Dynamics of Salmonella transmission on a British pig grower-finisher farm: A stochastic model Epidemiology & Infection, 136 (3). pp. 320-333.

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Previous modelling studies have estimated that between 1% and 10% of human salmonella infections are attributable to pig meat consumption. In response to this food safety threat the British pig industry have initiated a salmonella monitoring programme. It is anticipated that this programme will contribute to achieving a UK Food Standards Agency target for reducing salmonella levels in pigs at slaughter by 50% within 5 years. In order to better inform the monitoring programme, we have developed a stochastic transmission model for salmonella in a specialist grower-finisher pig herd, where data from a Danish longitudinal study have been used to estimate some of the key model parameters. The model estimates that about 17% of slaughter-age pigs will be infected with salmonella, and that of these infected pigs about 4% will be excreting the organism. In addition, the model shows that the most effective control strategies will be those that reduce between-pen transmission.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Surrey Business School
Authors :
Snary, E.L.
Arnold, M.E.
Alban, L.
Cook, A.J.C.
Date : 2008
Funders : Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)
DOI : 10.1017/S0950268807008485
Copyright Disclaimer : © 2007 Cambridge University Press.
Depositing User : Diane Maxfield
Date Deposited : 27 Jan 2020 16:33
Last Modified : 27 Jan 2020 16:34

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