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Prediction methods improve bus services profitability

Kireulishvili, George, Garn, Wolfgang, Aitken, James and Hemsley-Brown, Jane (2018) Prediction methods improve bus services profitability In: Euro 2018 - 29th European Conference on Operational Research, 08-11 Jul 2018, Valencia, Spain.

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Since the bus deregulation (Transport Act 1985) the patronage for bus services has been decreasing in a county in South of England. Hence, methods that increase patronage, focus subsidies and stimulate the bus industry are required. Our surveys and market research identified and quantified essential factors. The top three factors are price, frequency, and dependability. The model was further enhanced by taking into account real time passenger information (RTPI), socio-demographics and ticket machine data along targeted bus routes. These allowed the design of predictive models. Here, feature engineering was essential to boost the solution quality. We compared several models such as regression, decision tress and random forest. Additionally, traditional price elasticity formulas have been confirmed. Our results indicate that more accuracy can be gained using prediction methods based on the engineered features. This allows to identify routes that have the potential to increase in profitability - allowing a more focused subsidy strategy.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Conference Paper)
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Surrey Business School
Authors :
Kireulishvili, George
Aitken, James
Hemsley-Brown, Jane
Date : 11 July 2018
Additional Information : Invited abstract in session WC-26: Bike Sharing and Demand Prediction, stream Public Transportation I.
Depositing User : Clive Harris
Date Deposited : 14 Sep 2018 11:21
Last Modified : 14 Sep 2018 11:21

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