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Probabilistic estimates of scenario loss through a two-stage Monte Carlo approach

Ioannou, I and Chryssanthopoulos, MK (2011) Probabilistic estimates of scenario loss through a two-stage Monte Carlo approach

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A contribution towards better understanding, and communication to any interested parties, of seismic risk in loss estimation studies is believed to be the distinct treatment of inherent uncertainties (aleatory) from those associated with the models that could, in principle, be reduced (epistemic). In pursuing this objective, this paper treats separately and explicitly these sources of uncertainty through a two-stage Monte Carlo methodology, which may offer some advantages over existing simplified and/or approximate procedures. The methodology can be applied under general conditions, with fragility and exposure curves obtained by any of the generally accepted procedures. It has been implemented in the estimation of the direct financial loss of a single building, though other loss measures could also be incorporated. A three storey moment resisting frame is used to appraise the proposed methodology and highlight the relative importance of uncertainty sources in risk-based scenario loss. © 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Divisions : Surrey research (other units)
Authors :
Ioannou, I
Date : 2011
DOI : 10.1201/b11332-38
Depositing User : Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited : 17 May 2017 12:22
Last Modified : 23 Jan 2020 17:48

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