The evolution of electricity demand and the role for demand side participation, in buildings and transport

Barton, J, Thomson, M, Huang, S, Infield, D, Leach, M, Ogunkunle, D and Torriti, J (2013) The evolution of electricity demand and the role for demand side participation, in buildings and transport Energy Policy, 52. pp. 85-102.

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Abstract

This paper explores the possible evolution of UK electricity demand as we move along three potential transition pathways to a low carbon economy in 2050. The shift away from fossil fuels through the electrification of demand is discussed, particularly through the uptake of heat pumps and electric vehicles in the domestic and passenger transport sectors. Developments in the way people and institutions may use energy along each of the pathways are also considered and provide a rationale for the quantification of future annual electricity demands in various broad sectors. The paper then presents detailed modelling of hourly balancing of these demands in the context of potential low carbon generation mixes associated with the three pathways. In all cases, hourly balancing is shown to be a significant challenge. To minimise the need for conventional generation to operate with very low capacity factors, a variety of demand side participation measures are modelled and shown to provide significant benefits. Lastly, projections of operational greenhouse gas emissions from the UK and the imports of fossil fuels to the UK for each of the three pathways are presented. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Item Type:	Article
Divisions :	Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences > Centre for Environmental Strategy
Authors :	Name Email ORCID Barton, J Thomson, M Huang, S Infield, D Leach, M Ogunkunle, D Torriti, J
Date :	January 2013
DOI :	10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.040
Additional Information :	NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy Policy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy Policy, 52, January 2013, DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.040.
Depositing User :	Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited :	04 Feb 2013 09:55
Last Modified :	31 Oct 2017 14:57
URI:	http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/749072

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