University of Surrey

Test tubes in the lab Research in the ATI Dance Research

VOLATILITY IN THE CONSUMER PACKAGED GOODS INDUSTRY — A SIMULATION BASED STUDY

Sengupta, Abhijit and Glavin, Stephen E. (2010) VOLATILITY IN THE CONSUMER PACKAGED GOODS INDUSTRY — A SIMULATION BASED STUDY Advances in Complex Systems, 13 (04). pp. 579-605.

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

The volatility in a CPG market is modeled using a bottom-up simulation approach and validated against disaggregated supermarket transactions data. The simulation uses independent agents, each agent representing unique households in the data. A simple behavioral model incorporates household preferences for product attributes and prices. Our validation strategy tests the model predictions at both macro and micro levels and benchmarks the performance in each against a random choice model. The model significantly outperforms the benchmark at both levels. At the macro level, choices made by heterogenous agents accurately captures the volatility in market shares over time. This accuracy at the macro level is driven by the accuracy of predictions at the micro household level SKU and attribute choice.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Surrey Business School
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Sengupta, Abhijitabhijit.sengupta@surrey.ac.uk
Glavin, Stephen E.
Date : 2010
DOI : 10.1142/S0219525910002724
Uncontrolled Keywords : Complex system; validation; market dynamics; social simulation
Additional Information : Embargo OK Metadata Pending
Depositing User : James Marshall
Date Deposited : 19 Aug 2020 14:01
Last Modified : 19 Aug 2020 14:01
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/858440

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year


Information about this web site

© The University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, GU2 7XH, United Kingdom.
+44 (0)1483 300800