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The role of population scale in compartmental models of COVID-19 transmission

Watts, Christopher J., Gilbert, Nigel, Robertson, Duncan, Droy, Laurence T., Ladley, Daniel and Chattoe-Brown, Edmund The role of population scale in compartmental models of COVID-19 transmission Review of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.

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Abstract

Compartmental models of COVID-19 transmission have been used to inform policy, including the decision to temporarily reduce social contacts among the general population (“lockdown”). One such model is a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model developed by a team at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (hereafter, “the LSHTM model”, Davies et al., 2020a). This was used to evaluate the impact of several proposed interventions on the numbers of cases, deaths, and intensive care unit (ICU) hospital beds required in the UK. We wish here to draw attention to behaviour common to this and other compartmental models of diffusion, namely their sensitivity to the size of the population simulated and the number of seed infections within that population. This sensitivity may compromise any policy advice given. We therefore describe below the essential details of the LSHTM model, our experiments on its sensitivity, and why they matter to its use in policy making.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Department of Sociology
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Watts, Christopher J.
Gilbert, NigelN.Gilbert@surrey.ac.uk
Robertson, Duncan
Droy, Laurence T.
Ladley, Daniel
Chattoe-Brown, Edmund
OA Location : https://rofasss.org/2020/08/14/role-population-scale/
Additional Information : Metadata OK No Further action
Depositing User : James Marshall
Date Deposited : 18 Aug 2020 09:14
Last Modified : 18 Aug 2020 09:14
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/858425

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