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Modelling the species jump: Towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas

Hill, Andrew, Dew, T., Kosmider, R., Von Dobschuetz, S., Munoz, O., Hanna, A., Fusaro, A., De Nardi, M., Howard, W., Stevens, K. , Kelly, L., Havelaar, A. and Stärk, K. (2015) Modelling the species jump: Towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas Royal Society Open Science, 2 (9).

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The scientific understanding of the driving factors behind zoonotic and pandemic influenzas is hampered by complex interactions between viruses, animal hosts and humans. This complexity makes identifying influenza viruses of high zoonotic or pandemic risk, before they emerge from animal populations, extremely difficult and uncertain. As a first step towards assessing zoonotic risk of influenza, we demonstrate a risk assessment framework to assess the relative likelihood of influenza A viruses, circulating in animal populations, making the species jump into humans. The intention is that such a risk assessment framework could assist decision-makers to compare multiple influenza viruses for zoonotic potential and hence to develop appropriate strain-specific control measures. It also provides a first step towards showing proof of principle for an eventual pandemic risk model. We show that the spatial and temporal epidemiology is as important in assessing the risk of an influenza A species jump as understanding the innate molecular capability of the virus. We also demonstrate data deficiencies that need to be addressed in order to consistently combine both epidemiological and molecular virology data into a risk assessment framework. © 2015 The Authors.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Surrey Business School
Authors :
Dew, T.
Kosmider, R.
Von Dobschuetz, S.
Munoz, O.
Hanna, A.
Fusaro, A.
De Nardi, M.
Howard, W.
Stevens, K.
Kelly, L.
Havelaar, A.
Stärk, K.
Date : 1 September 2015
Funders : European Food Safety Authority (EFSA).
DOI : 10.1098/rsos.150173
Copyright Disclaimer : © 2015 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Uncontrolled Keywords : Avian influenza; Risk assessment; Zoonoses
Depositing User : Diane Maxfield
Date Deposited : 28 Jan 2020 10:21
Last Modified : 28 Jan 2020 10:21

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