Characterization of the Human Risk of Salmonellosis Related to Consumption of Pork Products in Different E.U. Countries Based on a QMRA

Vigre, H., Barfoed, K., Swart, A.N., Simons, R.R.L., Hill, A.A., Snary, E.L. and Hald, T. (2016) Characterization of the Human Risk of Salmonellosis Related to Consumption of Pork Products in Different E.U. Countries Based on a QMRA Risk Analysis, 36 (3). pp. 531-545.

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Abstract

In response to the European Food Safety Authority's wish to assess the reduction of human cases of salmonellosis by implementing control measures at different points in the farm-to-consumption chain for pork products, a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was developed. The model simulated the occurrence of Salmonella from the farm to consumption of pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready-to-eat sausage, respectively, and a dose-response model was used to estimate the probability of illness at consumption. The QMRA has a generic structure with a defined set of variables, whose values are changed according to the E.U. member state (MS) of interest. In this article we demonstrate the use of the QMRA in four MSs, representing different types of countries. The predicted probability of illness from the QMRA was between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million per serving across all three product types. Fermented ready-to-eat sausage imposed the highest probability of illness per serving in all countries, whereas the risks per serving of minced meat and pork chops were similar within each MS. For each of the products, the risk varied by a factor of 100 between the four MSs. The influence of lack of information for different variables was assessed by rerunning the model with alternative, more extreme, values. Out of the large number of uncertain variables, only a few of them have a strong influence on the probability of illness, in particular those describing the preparation at home and consumption.

Item Type:	Article
Divisions :	Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Surrey Business School
Authors :	Name Email ORCID Vigre, H. Barfoed, K. Swart, A.N. Simons, R.R.L. Hill, A.A. a.a.hill@surrey.ac.uk Snary, E.L. Hald, T.
Date :	22 March 2016
Funders :	European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), National Food Institute at the Technical University of Denmark (DK), Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NL), Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport (NL), Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (NL), Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (UK), Food Standards Agency (UK)
DOI :	10.1111/risa.12499
Copyright Disclaimer :	© 2015 Society for Risk Analysis
Uncontrolled Keywords :	QMRA; Risk characterizatio; Salmonella in pork; Uncertainty analysis
Depositing User :	Diane Maxfield
Date Deposited :	28 Jan 2020 10:47
Last Modified :	28 Jan 2020 13:03
URI:	http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/853418

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