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Quantifying the spatial risk of Avian Influenza introduction into British poultry by wild birds

Hill, Andrew, Gillings, Simon, Berriman, Alexander, Brouwer, Adam, Breed, Andrew C., Snow, Lucy, Ashton, Adam, Byrne, Charles and Irvine, Richard M. (2019) Quantifying the spatial risk of Avian Influenza introduction into British poultry by wild birds Scientific Reports, 9 (1), 19973.

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Abstract

The transmission of pathogens across the interface between wildlife and livestock presents a challenge to the development of effective surveillance and control measures. Wild birds, especially waterbirds such as the Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are considered to be the natural hosts of Avian Influenza (AI), and are presumed to pose one of the most likely vectors for incursion of AI into European poultry flocks. We have developed a generic quantitative risk map, derived from the classical epidemiological risk equation, to describe the relative, spatial risk of disease incursion into poultry flocks via wild birds. We then assessed the risk for AI incursion into British flocks. The risk map suggests that the majority of AI incursion risk is highly clustered within certain areas of Britain, including in the east, the south west and the coastal north-west of England. The clustering of high risk areas concentrates total risk in a relatively small land area; the top 33% of cells contribute over 80% of total incursion risk. This suggests that targeted risk-based sampling in a relatively small geographical area could be a much more effective and cost-efficient approach than representative sampling. The generic nature of the risk map method, allows rapid updating and application to other diseases transmissible between wild birds and poultry.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Surrey Business School
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Hill, Andrewa.a.hill@surrey.ac.uk
Gillings, Simon
Berriman, Alexander
Brouwer, Adam
Breed, Andrew C.
Snow, Lucy
Ashton, Adam
Byrne, Charles
Irvine, Richard M.
Date : 27 December 2019
Funders : UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Welsh Government, Scottish Government
DOI : 10.1038/s41598-019-56165-9
Copyright Disclaimer : © 2019, The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Depositing User : Diane Maxfield
Date Deposited : 27 Jan 2020 11:05
Last Modified : 27 Jan 2020 11:05
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/853413

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