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Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change

Huang, Tao, Fildes, Robert and Soopramanien, Didier (2019) Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change European Journal of Operational Research, 279 (2). pp. 459-470.

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Abstract

Grocery retailers need accurate sales forecasts at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) level to effectively manage their inventory. Previous studies have proposed forecasting methods which incorporate the effect of various marketing activities including prices and promotions. However, their methods have overlooked that the effects of the marketing activities on product sales may change over time. Therefore, these methods may be subject to the structural change problem and generate biased and less accurate forecasts. In this study, we propose more effective methods to forecast retailer product sales which take into account the problem of structural change. Based on data from a well-known US retailer, we show that our methods outperform conventional forecasting methods that ignore the possibility of such changes.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Surrey Business School
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Huang, Taot.huang@surrey.ac.uk
Fildes, Robert
Soopramanien, Didier
Date : 1 December 2019
DOI : 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011
Copyright Disclaimer : © 2019. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Uncontrolled Keywords : Forecasting; OR in marketing; Analytics; Retailing
Depositing User : Clive Harris
Date Deposited : 17 Oct 2019 15:05
Last Modified : 27 Apr 2020 11:33
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/852951

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