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Modelling election dynamics and the impact of disinformation

Brody, Dorje C. (2019) Modelling election dynamics and the impact of disinformation Information Geometry.

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Abstract

Complex dynamical systems driven by the unravelling of information can be modelled effectively by treating the underlying flow of information as the model input. Complicated dynamical behaviour of the system is then derived as an output. Such an information-based approach is in sharp contrast to the conventional mathematical modelling of information-driven systems whereby one attempts to come up with essentially ad hoc models for the outputs. Here, dynamics of electoral competition is modelled by the specification of the flow of information relevant to election. The seemingly random evolution of the election poll statistics are then derived as model outputs, which in turn are used to study election prediction, impact of disinformation, and the optimal strategy for information management in an election campaign.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences > Mathematics
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Brody, Dorje C.d.brody@surrey.ac.uk
Date : 7 October 2019
DOI : 10.1007/s41884-019-00021-2
Copyright Disclaimer : © The Author(s) 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
Uncontrolled Keywords : Information-based modelling; Electoral competition; Election prediction; Information control; Fake news
Depositing User : Diane Maxfield
Date Deposited : 16 Oct 2019 11:34
Last Modified : 16 Oct 2019 11:34
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/852937

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