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Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa

Redding, David W., Atkinson, Peter M., Cunningham, Andrew A., Lo Iacono, Gianni, Moses, Lina M., Wood, James and Jones, Kate E. (2019) Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa Nature Communications, 10, 4531. pp. 1-11.

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Abstract

Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a fourfold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences > School of Veterinary Medicine
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Redding, David W.
Atkinson, Peter M.
Cunningham, Andrew A.
Lo Iacono, Giannig.loiacono@surrey.ac.uk
Moses, Lina M.
Wood, James
Jones, Kate E.
Date : 15 October 2019
DOI : 10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6
Copyright Disclaimer : © The Author(s) 2019. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Depositing User : Clive Harris
Date Deposited : 26 Sep 2019 17:08
Last Modified : 05 Nov 2019 16:10
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/852819

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