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An external validation study of a clinical prediction rule for medical patients with suspected bacteraemia

Hodgson, L.E., Dragolea, N., Venn, R., Dimitrov, B.D. and Forni, Lui G. (2016) An external validation study of a clinical prediction rule for medical patients with suspected bacteraemia Emergency Medicine Journal, 33 (2). pp. 124-129.

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Abstract

Objective

The objective of this study was to externally validate a clinical prediction rule (CPR)—the ‘Shapiro criteria’—to predict bacteraemia in an acute medical unit (AMU).

Method

Prospectively collected data, retrospectively evaluated over 11 months in an AMU in the UK. From 4810 admissions, 635 patients (13%) had blood cultures (BCs) performed. The 100 cases of true bacteraemia were compared with a randomly selected sample of 100 control cases where BCs were sterile.

Results

To predict bacteraemia (at a cut-off score of two points), the Shapiro criteria had a sensitivity of 97% (95% CIs 91% to 99%), specificity 37% (28% to 47%), positive likelihood ratio 1.54 (1.3 to 1.8) and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.08 (0.03 to 0.25). The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.80 (0.74 to 0.86), and the Hosmer–Lemeshow p value was 0.45.

Conclusions

A cut-off score of two points on the Shapiro criteria had high sensitivity to predict bacteraemia in a study of acute general medical admissions. Application of the rule in patients being considered for a BC could identify those at low risk of bacteraemia. Though the model demonstrated good discrimination, the lengthy number of variables (13) and difficulty automating the CPR may limit its use.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences > School of Biosciences and Medicine
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Hodgson, L.E.
Dragolea, N.
Venn, R.
Dimitrov, B.D.
Forni, Lui G.l.forni@surrey.ac.uk
Date : 5 August 2016
DOI : 10.1136/emermed-2015-204926
Copyright Disclaimer : Copyright 2015 the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
Depositing User : Diane Maxfield
Date Deposited : 23 Sep 2019 13:28
Last Modified : 23 Sep 2019 13:28
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/852742

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