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The combination of interval forecasts in tourism

Li, Gang, Wu, Doris Chenguang, Zhou, Menglin and Liu, Anyu (2019) The combination of interval forecasts in tourism Annals of Tourism Research, 75. pp. 363-378.

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Abstract

Combination is an effective way to improve tourism forecasting accuracy. However, empirical evidence is limited to point forecasts. Given that interval forecasts can provide more comprehensive information, it is important to consider both point and interval forecasts for decision-making. Using Hong Kong tourism demand as an empirical case, this study is the first to examine if and how the combination can improve interval forecasting accuracy for tourism demand. Winkler scores are employed to measure interval forecasting performance. Empirical results show that combination improves the accuracy of tourism interval forecasting for different forecasting horizons. The findings provide government and industry practitioners with guidelines for producing accurate interval forecasts that benefit their policy-making for a wide array of applications in practice.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > School of Hospitality and Tourism Management
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Li, GangG.Li@surrey.ac.uk
Wu, Doris Chenguang
Zhou, Menglin
Liu, Anyuanyu.liu@surrey.ac.uk
Date : 22 March 2019
DOI : 10.1016/j.annals.2019.01.010
Copyright Disclaimer : © 2018. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Uncontrolled Keywords : Interval forecast; Combination forecasting; Econometric model; Winkler score; Tourism demand
Related URLs :
Depositing User : Clive Harris
Date Deposited : 05 Feb 2019 09:10
Last Modified : 08 Apr 2019 15:18
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/850363

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