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Computational modelling for decision-making: where, why, what, who and how

Calder, Muffy, Craig, Claire, Culley, Dave, de Cani, Richard, Donnelly, Christl A., Douglas, Rowan, Edmonds, Bruce, Gascoigne, Jonathon, Gilbert, Nigel, Hargrove, Caroline , Hinds, Derwen, Lane, David C., Mitchell, Dervilla, Pavey, Giles, Robertson, David, Rosewell, Bridget, Sherwin, Spencer, Walport, Mark and Wilson, Alan (2018) Computational modelling for decision-making: where, why, what, who and how Royal Society Open Science, 5, 172096.

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Abstract

In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we need ever more sophisticated computational models that can help us make decisions wisely and understand the potential consequences of choices. But creating a model requires far more than just raw data and technical skills: it requires a close collaboration between model commissioners, developers, users and reviewers. Good modelling requires its users and commissioners to understand more about the whole process, including the different kinds of purpose a model can have and the different technical bases. This paper offers a guide to the process of commissioning, developing and deploying models across a wide range of domains from public policy to science and engineering. It provides two checklists to help potential modellers, commissioners and users ensure they have considered the most significant factors that will determine success. We conclude there is a need to reinforce modelling as a discipline, so that misconstruction is less likely; to increase understanding of modelling in all domains, so that the misuse of models is reduced; and to bring commissioners closer to modelling, so that the results are more useful.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Department of Sociology
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Calder, Muffy
Craig, Claire
Culley, Dave
de Cani, Richard
Donnelly, Christl A.
Douglas, Rowan
Edmonds, Bruce
Gascoigne, Jonathon
Gilbert, NigelN.Gilbert@surrey.ac.uk
Hargrove, Caroline
Hinds, Derwen
Lane, David C.
Mitchell, Dervilla
Pavey, Giles
Robertson, David
Rosewell, Bridget
Sherwin, Spencer
Walport, Mark
Wilson, Alan
Date : 20 June 2018
Identification Number : 10.1098/rsos.172096
Copyright Disclaimer : © 2018 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Uncontrolled Keywords : Modelling; Decision-making; Data; Uncertainty; Complexity; Communication
Depositing User : Clive Harris
Date Deposited : 02 Jul 2018 15:04
Last Modified : 07 Nov 2018 12:43
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/848626

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