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A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses

Djennad, Abdelmajid, Lo Iacono, Giovanni, Sarran, Christophe, Fleming, Lora E, Kessel, Anthony, Haines, Andy and Nichols, Gordon (2018) A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses BMC Infectious Diseases, 18 (198). pp. 1-9.

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Abstract

Background: To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known.

Methods: Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient’s specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient’s residence and the laboratory.

Results: There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall), based on the cases where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was within 20 km, still exhibited tails somewhat longer than the corresponding exponential fits suggesting modest small scale variations in temperature and rainfall.

Conclusion: The findings confirm that, for the purposes of studying the relationships between meteorological variables and infectious diseases using data based on laboratory postcodes, the weather results are sufficiently similar to justify the use of laboratory postcode as a surrogate for domestic postcode. Exclusion of the small percentage of cases where there is a large distance between the residence and the laboratory could increase the precision of estimates, but there are generally strong associations between daily weather parameters at residence and laboratory.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences > School of Veterinary Medicine
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Djennad, Abdelmajid
Lo Iacono, Giovannig.loiacono@surrey.ac.uk
Sarran, Christophe
Fleming, Lora E
Kessel, Anthony
Haines, Andy
Nichols, Gordon
Date : 27 April 2018
Funders : Medical Research Council (MRC), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
DOI : 10.1186/s12879-018-3106-9
Copyright Disclaimer : © The Author(s). 2018 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
Uncontrolled Keywords : Campylobacter; Cryptosporidium; Temperature; Rainfall; Data linkage; SGSS; MEDMI; MIDAS
Depositing User : Clive Harris
Date Deposited : 19 Apr 2018 13:54
Last Modified : 16 Jan 2019 19:09
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/846269

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