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Modeling and Forecasting Chinese Outbound Tourism: An Econometric Approach

Lin, Vera Shanshan, Liu, Anyu and Song, Haiyan (2015) Modeling and Forecasting Chinese Outbound Tourism: An Econometric Approach Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 32 (1-2). pp. 34-49.

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Abstract

This paper aims to examine the demand for outbound tourism by mainland Chinese residents to 11 international destinations, and provide long-run forecasts up to the year 2020. The empirical results suggest that the income level and the cost of a stay at a tourism destination compared with that of staying at a Chinese tourism destination are two important factors that affect Chinese residents’ traveling abroad. Results also show that the long-run income elasticities for all destinations range from 0.406 to 1.785, while the own price elasticities vary from −9.490 to −0.152. Based on the response patterns of tourism demand to income and price changes, five main categories of Chinese outbound tourism markets are identified. An ex ante forecasting exercise is also carried out which shows that outbound tourists from China mainly travel to Asian countries/regions during the period 2012–2020. The total number of outbound tourists is expected to reach 138.7 million by 2020.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > School of Hospitality and Tourism Management
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Lin, Vera Shanshan
Liu, Anyuanyu.liu@surrey.ac.uk
Song, Haiyan
Date : 1 April 2015
Identification Number : 10.1080/10548408.2014.986011
Copyright Disclaimer : © 2015 Taylor & Francis
Uncontrolled Keywords : China; Demand elasticity; Forecasts; Outbound tourism
Depositing User : Clive Harris
Date Deposited : 12 Apr 2018 11:40
Last Modified : 12 Apr 2018 11:55
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/846199

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