University of Surrey

Test tubes in the lab Research in the ATI Dance Research

The determinants of heroin flows in Europe: A latent space approach

Berlusconi, Giulia, Aziani, A and Giommoni, L (2017) The determinants of heroin flows in Europe: A latent space approach Social Networks. Special issue on Crime and Security Networks, 51. pp. 104-117.

[img] Text
Berlusconi Aziani Giommoni (2017) The determinants of heroin flows in Europe_manuscript.pdf - Accepted version Manuscript
Restricted to Repository staff only until 25 October 2018.

Download (959kB)

Abstract

This study utilises recent advances in statistical models for social networks to identify the factors shaping heroin trafficking in relation to European countries. First, it estimates the size of the heroin flows among a network of 61 countries, before subsequently using a latent space approach to model the presence of trafficking and the amount of heroin traded between any two given countries. Many networks, such as trade networks, are intrinsically weighted, and ignoring edge weights results in a loss of relevant information. Traditionally, the gravity model has been used to predict legal trade flows, assuming conditional independence among observations. More recently, latent space position models for social networks have been used to analyze legal trade among countries, and, mutatis mutandis, can be applied to the context of illegal trade to count both edge weights and conditional dependence among observations. These models allow for a better understanding of the generative processes and potential evolution of heroin trafficking routes. This study shows that geographical and social proximity provide fertile ground for the formation of heroin flows. Opportunities are also a driver of drug flows towards countries where regulation of corruption is weak.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Department of Sociology
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Berlusconi, Giuliag.berlusconi@surrey.ac.ukUNSPECIFIED
Aziani, AUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Giommoni, LUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date : 25 April 2017
Identification Number : 10.1016/j.socnet.2017.03.012
Copyright Disclaimer : © 2017. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Uncontrolled Keywords : Heroin Trafficking; Latent space; Gravity model; Social proximity
Depositing User : Melanie Hughes
Date Deposited : 05 Dec 2017 14:59
Last Modified : 06 Dec 2017 11:36
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/845116

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year


Information about this web site

© The University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, GU2 7XH, United Kingdom.
+44 (0)1483 300800