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Ballistic coefficient estimation for re-entry prediction of rocket bodies in eccentric orbits based on TLE data

Gondelach, David, Armellin, Roberto and Lidtke, AA (2017) Ballistic coefficient estimation for re-entry prediction of rocket bodies in eccentric orbits based on TLE data Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2017, 7309637.

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Abstract

Spent rocket bodies in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) pose impact risks to the Earth's surface when they re-enter the Earth's at- mosphere. To mitigate these risks, re-entry prediction of GTO rocket bodies is required. In this paper, the re-entry prediction of rocket bod- ies in eccentric orbits based on only Two-Line Element (TLE) data and using only ballistic coefficient (BC) estimation is assessed. The TLEs are preprocessed to filter out outliers and the BC is estimated using only semi-major axis data. The BC estimation and re-entry pre- diction accuracy are analyzed by performing predictions for 101 rocket bodies initially in GTO and comparing with the actual re-entry epoch at different times before re-entry. Predictions using a single and mul- tiple BC estimates and using state estimation by orbit determination are quantitatively compared with each other for the 101 upper stages.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences > Electronic Engineering
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Gondelach, Davidd.gondelach@surrey.ac.uk
Armellin, Robertor.armellin@surrey.ac.uk
Lidtke, AA
Date : 10 December 2017
Funders : EPSRC
Identification Number : 10.1155/2017/7309637
Copyright Disclaimer : Copyright © 2017 David J. Gondelach et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Depositing User : Melanie Hughes
Date Deposited : 21 Nov 2017 15:18
Last Modified : 09 May 2018 11:29
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/844972

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