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The Migration Intentions of Young Adults in Europe: A Comparative, Multi-Level Analysis

Williams, Allan, Jephote, Calvin, Janta, Hanna and Li, Gang (2017) The Migration Intentions of Young Adults in Europe: A Comparative, Multi-Level Analysis Population, Space and Place, 24 (1).

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Research on migration intentions is relatively fragmented, traditionally drawing conclusions from relatively small survey samples, focussing on individual countries, or relying on public opinion polls which provide very few explanatory variables. This paper addresses these limitations by developing a multi-level model of an extensive range of macro, meso and micro determinants of migration intentions across different time frames. The paper utilises an online panel survey of 20,473 non-student respondents aged 16-35 from 9 EU countries.

Ordinal multi-level modelling, with post-stratification weighting, is used to determine the key drivers of, and barriers to, migration intentions in both a pan-European model, and nine separate national-scale models. The findings confirm the significance of macro, meso and micro factors. While socio-economic factors emerge as powerful explanatory factors, non-pecuniary factors are also important, including sensation seeking. There are broad similarities in the findings across the separate national-level models, but also differences in the relative importance of socio-economic, gender, and personality factors. Migration intentions were highly dependent on the decision-making time frame: 17 per cent of respondents over one year, but 30 per cent over five years, are likely to migrate or to have made firm plans to migrate. The rank ordering of the countries challenges the notion of there being a simple differentiation between the newer and older member states of EU.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > School of Hospitality and Tourism Management
Authors :
Jephote, Calvin
Date : 29 November 2017
DOI : 10.1002/psp.2123
Copyright Disclaimer : Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Uncontrolled Keywords : Youth migration; Migration intentions; European migration; Time frames; Multi-level modelling
Depositing User : Clive Harris
Date Deposited : 08 Nov 2017 11:44
Last Modified : 30 Nov 2019 02:08

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