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Integrative modelling for One Health: pattern, process and participation

Scoones, I., Jones, K., Lo Iacono, Giovanni, Redding, D. W., Wilkinson, A. and Wood, J. L. N. (2017) Integrative modelling for One Health: pattern, process and participation Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 372 (1725).

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Abstract

This paper argues for an integrative modelling approach for understanding zoonoses disease dynamics, combining process, pattern and participatory models. Each type of modelling provides important insights, but all are limited. Combining these in a ‘3P’ approach offers the opportunity for a productive conversation between modelling efforts, contributing to a ‘One Health’ agenda. The aim is not to come up with a composite model, but seek synergies between perspectives, encouraging cross-disciplinary interactions. We illustrate our argument with cases from Africa, and in particular from our work on Ebola virus and Lassa fever virus. Combining process-based compartmental models with macroecological data offers a spatial perspective on potential disease impacts. However, without insights from the ground, the ‘black box’ of transmission dynamics, so crucial to model assumptions, may not be fully understood. We show how participatory modelling and ethnographic research of Ebola and Lassa fever can reveal social roles, unsafe practices, mobility and movement and temporal changes in livelihoods. Together with longer-term dynamics of change in societies and ecologies, all can be important in explaining disease transmission, and provide important complementary insights to other modelling efforts. An integrative modelling approach therefore can offer help to improve disease control efforts and public health responses.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences > School of Veterinary Medicine
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Scoones, I.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Jones, K.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Lo Iacono, Giovannig.loiacono@surrey.ac.ukUNSPECIFIED
Redding, D. W.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Wilkinson, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Wood, J. L. N.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date : 19 July 2017
Identification Number : 10.1098/rstb.2016.0164
Copyright Disclaimer : © 2017 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Uncontrolled Keywords : Zoonoses; Modelling; Africa; Lassa fever; Ebola; One Health
Additional Information : This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’.
Depositing User : Clive Harris
Date Deposited : 03 Nov 2017 09:10
Last Modified : 03 Nov 2017 09:10
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/844809

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