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Investigation into sampling strategies in response to potential outbreaks of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza initiated in commercial duck holdings in Great Britain.

Arnold, ME, Irvine, RM, Tearne, O, Rae, D, Cook, AJ and Breed, AC (2012) Investigation into sampling strategies in response to potential outbreaks of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza initiated in commercial duck holdings in Great Britain. Epidemiol Infect. pp. 1-12.

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Abstract

SUMMARY The aim of this study was to evaluate potential sampling strategies for detection of infected flocks that could be applied during an outbreak of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI) initiated in duck holdings, following initial detection. A simulation model of avian influenza virus transmission and spread within and between holdings, respectively, was used to predict the impact on the size and duration of an outbreak of (i) changing the tracing window within which premises that might be the source of infection or that may have been infected by the index premises were sampled and (ii) changing the number of birds sampled in the flock being tested. It has shown that there is potential benefit in increasing the tracing window in terms of reducing the likelihood of a large outbreak. It has also shown that there is comparatively little benefit from increasing the number of birds sampled per flock.

Item Type: Article
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Arnold, MEUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Irvine, RMUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tearne, OUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rae, DUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Cook, AJalasdair.j.cook@surrey.ac.ukUNSPECIFIED
Breed, ACUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date : 16 July 2012
Identification Number : 10.1017/S0950268812001483
Depositing User : Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited : 17 May 2017 09:49
Last Modified : 17 May 2017 14:45
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/825301

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