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Inflation forecast-based-rules and indeterminacy: a puzzle and a resolution

Levine, P, McAdam, P and Pearlman, JG Inflation forecast-based-rules and indeterminacy: a puzzle and a resolution .

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We examine an interesting puzzle in monetary economics between what monetary authorities claim (namely to be forward-looking and pre-emptive) and the poor stabilization properties routinely reported for forecast-based rules. Our resolution is that central banks should be viewed as following ‘Calvo-type’ inflation-forecast-based (IFB) interest rate rules which depend on a discounted sum of current and future rates of inflation. Such rules might be regarded as both within the legal frameworks, and potentially mimicking central bankers’ practice. We find that Calvo-type IFB interest rate rules are first: less prone to indeterminacy than standard rules with a finite forward horizon. Second, for such rules in difference form, the indeterminacy problem disappears altogether. Third, optimized forms have good stabilization properties as they become more forward-looking, a property that sharply contrasts that of standard IFB rules. Fourth, they appear data coherent when incorporated into a well-known estimated DSGE model of the Euro-area. JEL Classification: E52, E37, E58

Item Type: Other
Divisions : Surrey research (other units)
Authors :
McAdam, P
Pearlman, JG
Uncontrolled Keywords : Calvo-type interest rate rules, indeterminacy, Inflation-forecast-based interest rate rules
Depositing User : Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited : 16 May 2017 15:14
Last Modified : 23 Jan 2020 10:28

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