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Nonlinear mapping of uncertainties: a differential algebraic approach

Armellin, R, Di Lizia, P, Bernelli Zazzera, F and Berz, M Nonlinear mapping of uncertainties: a differential algebraic approach In: 4th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques (ICATT), 2010-04-29 - 2010-04-30, Madrid, Spain.

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Abstract

A method for the nonlinear propagation of uncertainties in celestial mechanics based on differential algebra is presented. The arbitrary order Taylor expansion of the flow of ordinary differential equations with respect to the initial condition delivered by differential algebra is exploited to implement an accurate and computationally efficient Monte Carlo algorithm, in which thousands of pointwise integrations are substituted by polynomial evaluations. The algorithm is applied to study the close encounter of asteroid Apophis with our planet in 2029. To this aim, we first compute the high order Taylor expansion of Apophis’ close encounter distance from the Earth by means of map inversion and composition; then we run the proposed Monte Carlo algorithm to perform the statistical analysis.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Conference Paper)
Subjects : Electronic Engineering
Divisions : Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences > Electronic Engineering
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Armellin, RUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Di Lizia, PUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Bernelli Zazzera, FUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Berz, MUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Uncontrolled Keywords : Uncertainties Propagation, Monte Carlo Simulation, Apophis Close Encounter, Differential Algebra
Depositing User : Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited : 20 Dec 2016 09:45
Last Modified : 31 Oct 2017 19:01
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/813150

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