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Knowledge extraction and the development of a decision support system for the conceptual design of liquefied natural gas terminals under risk and uncertainty.

Rustell, Michael (2016) Knowledge extraction and the development of a decision support system for the conceptual design of liquefied natural gas terminals under risk and uncertainty. Doctoral thesis, University of Surrey.

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Abstract

The concept design stage is widely regarded to be the most influential. Key decisions are made and significant project finance is acquired. Traditionally, designs are developed through engineering judgement, driven by experience. However, this approach can be time consuming as designs typically evolve through iteration and it does not guarantee that the most optimal option(s) will be developed. This thesis discusses the development of a decision support system for the concept design of an LNG terminal - RaPoLa (Rapid Port Layout). It uses a range of computing and mathematical devices to enable options to be developed manually or automatically using both deterministic and probabilistic methodologies. This enables the exploration for optimal concept designs to be accomplished in a multitude of ways. A full description of the mathematical basis of RaPoLa is given and three chapters detailing practical applications introduce the reader to the core concepts of RaPoLa and demonstrate a clear progression from a simple deterministic, manual design to a fully automated, probabilistic design. The results of using RaPoLa on a case study indicate that it is capable of producing options that more optimal than the traditional approach.

Item Type: Thesis (Doctoral)
Subjects : Civil Engineering, Machine Learning, Statistics
Divisions : Theses
Authors :
AuthorsEmailORCID
Rustell, Michaelmichael.rustell25@gmail.comUNSPECIFIED
Date : 30 September 2016
Funders : EPSRC
Grant Title : Risk, uncertainty and optimisation within port design
Contributors :
ContributionNameEmailORCID
Thesis supervisorKhu, Soon-ThiamUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Thesis supervisorOrsini, AuroraUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Thesis supervisorJin, YaochuUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Thesis supervisorGouldby, BenUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Depositing User : Michael Rustell
Date Deposited : 27 Oct 2016 09:02
Last Modified : 27 Oct 2016 09:02
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/812133

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