How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?
Murad, Z, Starmer, C and Sefton, M (2016) How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence? Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.
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Abstract
We examine the relationship between confidence in own absolute performance and risk attitudes using two confidence elicitation procedures: self-reported (non-incentivised) confidence and an incentivised procedure that elicits the certainty equivalent of a bet based on performance. The former procedure reproduces the “hard-easy effect” (underconfidence in easy tasks and overconfidence in hard tasks) found in a large number of studies using nonincentivised self-reports. The latter procedure produces general underconfidence, which is significantly reduced, but not eliminated when we filter out the effects of risk attitudes. Finally, we find that self-reported confidence correlates significantly with features of individual risk attitudes including parameters of individual probability weighting.
Item Type: | Article | ||||||||||||
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Divisions : | Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences | ||||||||||||
Authors : |
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Date : | 29 February 2016 | ||||||||||||
Additional Information : | The final publication is available at Springer via http://link.springer.com/journal/11166 | ||||||||||||
Depositing User : | Symplectic Elements | ||||||||||||
Date Deposited : | 04 Feb 2016 10:20 | ||||||||||||
Last Modified : | 01 Mar 2017 02:08 | ||||||||||||
URI: | http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/809592 |
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