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How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?

Murad, Z, Starmer, C and Sefton, M (2016) How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence? Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

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We examine the relationship between confidence in own absolute performance and risk attitudes using two confidence elicitation procedures: self-reported (non-incentivised) confidence and an incentivised procedure that elicits the certainty equivalent of a bet based on performance. The former procedure reproduces the “hard-easy effect” (underconfidence in easy tasks and overconfidence in hard tasks) found in a large number of studies using nonincentivised self-reports. The latter procedure produces general underconfidence, which is significantly reduced, but not eliminated when we filter out the effects of risk attitudes. Finally, we find that self-reported confidence correlates significantly with features of individual risk attitudes including parameters of individual probability weighting.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences
Authors :
Date : 29 February 2016
Additional Information : The final publication is available at Springer via
Depositing User : Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited : 04 Feb 2016 10:20
Last Modified : 04 Feb 2016 10:20

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