How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?

Murad, Z, Starmer, C and Sefton, M (2016) How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence? Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Preview	Text JRU 3403 REVISED Murad Sefton and Starmer - November 2015.pdf Available under License : See the attached licence file. Download (300kB) | Preview
Preview	Text (licence) SRI_deposit_agreement.pdf Available under License : See the attached licence file. Download (33kB) | Preview

Abstract

We examine the relationship between confidence in own absolute performance and risk attitudes using two confidence elicitation procedures: self-reported (non-incentivised) confidence and an incentivised procedure that elicits the certainty equivalent of a bet based on performance. The former procedure reproduces the “hard-easy effect” (underconfidence in easy tasks and overconfidence in hard tasks) found in a large number of studies using nonincentivised self-reports. The latter procedure produces general underconfidence, which is significantly reduced, but not eliminated when we filter out the effects of risk attitudes. Finally, we find that self-reported confidence correlates significantly with features of individual risk attitudes including parameters of individual probability weighting.

Item Type:	Article
Divisions :	Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences
Authors :	Authors Email ORCID Murad, Z UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Starmer, C UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Sefton, M UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
Date :	29 February 2016
Additional Information :	The final publication is available at Springer via http://link.springer.com/journal/11166
Depositing User :	Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited :	04 Feb 2016 10:20
Last Modified :	01 Mar 2017 02:08
URI:	http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/809592

Actions (login required)

View Item

Downloads