Integration of base rates and new information in an abstract hypothesis-testing task.

Rusconi, P, Marelli, M, Russo, S, D'Addario, M and Cherubini, P (2013) Integration of base rates and new information in an abstract hypothesis-testing task. Br J Psychol, 104 (2). pp. 193-211.

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Abstract

In two studies, we investigated how people use base rates and the presence versus the absence of new information to judge which of two hypotheses is more likely. Participants were given problems based on two decks of cards printed with 0-4 letters. A table showed the relative frequencies of the letters on the cards within each deck. Participants were told the letters that were printed on or absent from a card the experimenter had drawn. Base rates were conveyed by telling participants that the experimenter had chosen the deck by drawing from an urn containing, in different proportions, tickets marked either 'deck 1' or 'deck 2'. The task was to judge from which of the two decks the card was most likely drawn. Prior probabilities and the evidential strength of the subset of present clues (computed as 'weight of evidence') were the only significant predictors of participants' dichotomous (both studies) and continuous (Study 2) judgments. The evidential strength of all clues was not a significant predictor of participants' judgments in either study, and no significant interactions emerged. We discuss the results as evidence for additive integration of base rates and the new present information in hypothesis testing.

Item Type:	Article
Divisions :	Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences > School of Psychology
Authors :	Name Email ORCID Rusconi, P Marelli, M Russo, S D'Addario, M Cherubini, P
Date :	May 2013
Identification Number :	10.1111/j.2044-8295.2012.02112.x
Uncontrolled Keywords :	Adult, Bayes Theorem, Decision Making, Disclosure, Female, Humans, Judgment, Male, Middle Aged, Neuropsychological Tests, Probability, Problem Solving, Young Adult
Related URLs :	Author
Additional Information :	This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Rusconi P, Marelli M, Russo S, D'Addario M, Cherubini P. Integration of base rates and new information in an abstract hypothesis-testing task. Br J Psychol 104(2):193-211 May 2013. DOI: 10.1111/j.2044-8295.2012.02112.x which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8295.2012.02112.x.
Depositing User :	Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited :	25 Jun 2015 10:24
Last Modified :	31 Oct 2017 17:29
URI:	http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/807821

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