New Forecasting Models
Li, G and Song, H (2007) New Forecasting Models Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 21 (4). 3 - 13. ISSN 1054-8408
|PDF - Accepted Version |
Available under License : See the attached licence file.
|Plain Text (licence)|
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/J073v21n04_02
Tourism forecasting plays an important role in tourism planning and management. Various forecasting techniques have been developed and applied to the tourism context, amongst which econometric forecasting has been winning an increasing popularity in tourism research. This paper therefore aims to introduce the latest developments of econometric forecasting approaches and their applications to tourism demand analysis. Particular emphases are placed on the time varying parameter (TVP) forecasting technique and its application to the almost ideal demand system (AIDS). The discussions in this paper fall into two main parts, in line with the two broad categories of econometric forecasting approaches: the first part refers to the single-equation forecasting techniques, focusing particularly on both long-run and short-term TVP models. The second part introduces the system-of-equations forecasting models, represented by the AIDS and its dynamic versions including the combination with the TVP technique, will be discussed one by one following the order of methodological developments.
|Additional Information:||This is an electronic version of an article published in Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 21(4), 3-13(2007). Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing is available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1300/J073v21n04_02.|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Business, Economics and Law > Hospitality and Tourism Management|
|Deposited By:||Mr Adam Field|
|Deposited On:||25 Jan 2012 00:42|
|Last Modified:||14 Mar 2013 11:00|
Repository Staff Only: item control page