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Tourism Demand Modeling and Forecasting: A Review of Literature Related to Greater China

Li, G (2009) Tourism Demand Modeling and Forecasting: A Review of Literature Related to Greater China Journal of China Tourism Research, 5 (1). 2 - 40. ISSN 1938-8160

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Abstract

Greater China, including Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, contributes significantly to both regional and global tourism developments. Empirical research on tourism demand modeling and forecasting has attracted increasing attention of scholars both within and beyond this region. One hundred eighty articles are identified that were published in both English‐ and Chinese‐language journals since the beginning of the 1990s. This study presents the largest scale of literature survey on tourism demand studies. Furthermore, this is the first attempt in tourism demand review studies that focuses exclusively on one geographic region and covers bilingual literature. Particular emphasis of this review is placed on research development, geographic focus, data type and frequency, measurement of tourism demand, modeling and forecasting techniques, demand elasticity analysis, forecasting exercises, and emerging research trends. Comparisons between the two bodies of literature published in two languages show a number of research gaps, such as the diversity and sophistication of the research methodology, rigor of the modeling and forecasting process, and theoretical foundations of demand analysis. Correspondingly, constructive recommendations are made to further advance tourism demand studies related to Greater China.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is an electronic version of an article published in Journal of China Tourism Research, 5(1), 2-40(2009). Journal of China Tourism Research is available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19388160802711386.
Divisions: Faculty of Business, Economics and Law > Hospitality and Tourism Management
Depositing User: Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited: 15 Dec 2011 11:51
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2013 18:48
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/7529

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