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Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research

Song, H and Li, G (2008) Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research Tourism Management, 29 (2). 203 - 220. ISSN 0261-5177

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Abstract

This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Furthermore, this study identifies some new research directions, which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination; integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, tourism cycles and seasonality analysis, events' impact assessment and risk forecasting. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Tourism Management. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Tourism Management, 29(2), Apr 2008, DOI 10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.016.
Uncontrolled Keywords: tourism demand, modelling, forecasting, INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL DEMAND, TIME-SERIES, NEURAL-NETWORK, UNITED-STATES, MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES, COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS, MARKET SHARES, AUSTRALIA, ARRIVALS, SYSTEM
Divisions: Faculty of Business, Economics and Law > Hospitality and Tourism Management
Depositing User: Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited: 15 Dec 2011 11:36
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2013 18:48
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/7523

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