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Forecasting demand of emergency care

Jones, S, Joy, MP and Person, J (2002) Forecasting demand of emergency care Health Care Management Science, 4. pp. 297-305.

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This paper describes a model that can forecast the daily number of occupied beds due to emergency admissions in an acute hospital. Out of sample forecasts 32 day days in advance. have an RMS error of 3% of the mean number of beds used for emergency admissions. We find that the number of occupied beds due to emergency admissions is related to both air temperature and PHLS data on influenza like illnesses. We find that a period of high volatility, indicated by GARCH errors, will result in an increase in waiting times in the A&E Department. Furthermore. volatility gives more warning of waiting times in A&E than total bed occupancy.

Item Type: Article
Divisions : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Surrey Business School
Authors :
Jones, S
Joy, MP
Person, J
Date : 1 November 2002
DOI : 10.1023/A:1020390425029
Contributors :
ContributionNameEmailORCID, YA
Related URLs :
Additional Information : The original publication is available at
Depositing User : Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited : 28 Mar 2017 14:09
Last Modified : 31 Oct 2017 14:44

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