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Will the water resources of Israel, Palestine and Jordan remain sufficient to permit economic and social development for the foreseeable future?

Chenoweth, J (2011) Will the water resources of Israel, Palestine and Jordan remain sufficient to permit economic and social development for the foreseeable future? WATER POLICY, 13 (3). 397 - 410. ISSN 1366-7017

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Abstract

Scenario analysis suggests that by 2050 the population of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip and Jordan will have grown from 17.2 million to between 21.1 and 38.5 million people. These population scenarios are compared to a range of water resource scenarios that consider the effect of climate change, a possible redistribution of the region's shared water resources as a result of a peace agreement, or the status quo. This scenario analysis shows that under all possible population-water scenarios combinations considered, the water resources of Jordan and Israel remain above the minimum threshold required for social and economic development. In the case of the West Bank, water resources may also remain sufficient for all population and climatic scenarios if the West Bank gains a greater portion of the shared water resources. In the Gaza Strip, however, desalination or water imports are required. Will the water resources of Israel, Palestine and Jordan remain sufficient to permit economic and social development for the foreseeable future? Jonathan Chenoweth -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABSTRACT Scenario analysis suggests that by 2050 the population of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip and Jordan will have grown from 17.2 million to between 21.1 and 38.5 million people. These population scenarios are compared to a range of water resource scenarios that consider the effect of climate change, a possible redistribution of the region's shared water resources as a result of a peace agreement, or the status quo. This scenario analysis shows that under all possible population-water scenarios combinations considered, the water resources of Jordan and Israel remain above the minimum threshold required for social and economic development. In the case of the West Bank, water resources may also remain sufficient for all population and climatic scenarios if the West Bank gains a greater portion of the shared water resources. In the Gaza Strip, however, desalination or water imports are required.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: ©IWA Publishing 2011. The definitive peer-reviewed and edited version of this article is published in Water Policy, 13 (3) 397-410 2011 DOI 10.2166/wp.2010.131 and is available at www.iwapublishing.com.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Gaza, Israel, Jordan, Palestine, Scenario analysis, Water resources, West Bank
Divisions: Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences > Centre for Environmental Strategy
Depositing User: Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited: 22 Aug 2012 11:19
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2014 13:24
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/7196

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