Modelling of Failure Consequences for Robustness Evaluation

Abstract

Structural failure consequences can take many different forms: from material/structural damage and human injuries/fatalities, to functional downtime and environmental impact, as well as loss of reputation and collateral damage that may be orders of magnitude higher than the reconstruction cost. Within a risk-based robustness framework, consequence modelling is an important step in estimating risk, and needs to be undertaken with clarity and transparency. This paper highlights the principles to be adopted in estimating consequences arising from potential building and bridge failures. The two structural forms are chosen so as to elucidate factors relevant to cases where failure is confined to a single facility, or where it is likely to affect a spatial network. Past experience, as well as methods that are increasingly used in emergency response planning, are reviewed. A categorisation of failure consequences is presented, together with associated models for quantifying their magnitude.

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