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Unravelling trends and seasonality: A structural time series analysis of transport oil demand in the UK and Japan

Hunt, LC and Ninomiya, Y (2003) Unravelling trends and seasonality: A structural time series analysis of transport oil demand in the UK and Japan ENERGY JOURNAL, 24 (3). pp. 63-96.

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Abstract

This paper demonstrates the importance of adequately modelling the Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) and seasonality when estimating transportation oil demand for the UK and Japan. The structural time series model is therefore employed to allow for a stochastic underlying trend and stochastic seasonals using quarterly data from the early 1970s, for both UK and Japan. It is found that the stochastic seasonals are preferred to the conventional deterministic dummies and, more importantly, the UEDT is found to be highly non-linear for both countries, with periods where it is both upward and downward sloping.

Item Type: Article
Authors :
NameEmailORCID
Hunt, LCUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ninomiya, YUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date : 2003
Identification Number : 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No3-3
Related URLs :
Depositing User : Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited : 28 Mar 2017 14:41
Last Modified : 31 Oct 2017 14:31
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/380526

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