University of Surrey

Test tubes in the lab Research in the ATI Dance Research

Estimating underlying energy demand trends using UK annual data

Dimitropoulos, J, Hunt, LC and Judge, G (2005) Estimating underlying energy demand trends using UK annual data Applied Economic Letters, 12 (4). 239 - 244. ISSN 1350-4851

Available under License : See the attached licence file.

Download (320kB)
PDF (licence)

Download (33kB)


Employing the Structural Time Series Model (STSM) approach suggested by Harvey (1997), and based on annual data for the UK from 1967–2002, this paper reiterates the importance of using a stochastic rather than a linear deterministic trend formulation when estimating energy demand models, a practice originally established by Hunt et al. (2003a, 2003b) using quarterly UK data. The findings confirm that important non-linear and stochastic trends are present as a result of technical change and other exogenous factors driving demand, and that a failure to account for these trends will lead to biased estimates of the long-run price and income elasticities. The study also establishes that, provided these effects are allowed for, the estimated long-run elasticities are robust to the different data frequencies used in the modelling.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is an electronic version of an article published in Applied Economics Letters, 12(4), pp. 239-244. Applied Economics Letters is available online at: and the article can be found online at:
Divisions: Faculty of Business, Economics and Law > Economics
Depositing User: Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited: 19 Apr 2012 11:07
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2014 13:18

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item


Downloads per month over past year

Information about this web site

© The University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, GU2 7XH, United Kingdom.
+44 (0)1483 300800