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Electricity demand for Sri lanka: A time series analysis

Amarawickrama, HA and Hunt, LC (2008) Electricity demand for Sri lanka: A time series analysis ENERGY, 33 (5). 724 - 739. ISSN 0360-5442

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Abstract

This study estimates electricity demand functions for Sri Lanka using six econometric techniques. It shows that the preferred specifications differ somewhat and there is a wide range in the long-run price and income elasticities with the estimated long-run income elasticity ranging from 1.0 to 2.0 and the long run price elasticity from 0 to –0.06. There is also a wide range of estimates of the speed with which consumers would adjust to any disequilibrium, although the estimated impact income elasticities tended to be more in agreement ranging from 1.8 to 2.0. Furthermore, the estimated effect of the underlying energy demand trend varies between the different techniques; ranging from being positive to zero to predominantly negative. Despite these differences the forecasts generated from the six models up until 2025 do not differ significantly. Thus on one hand it is encouraging that the Sri Lanka electricity authorities can have some faith in econometrically estimated models used for forecasting. However, by the end of the forecast period in 2025 there is a variation of around 452MW in the base forecast peak demand; which, in relative terms for a small electricity generation system like Sri Lanka’s, represents a considerable difference.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: NOTICE: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy, 33(5), May 2008, DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2007.12.008.
Uncontrolled Keywords: developing countries, electricity demand estimation, Sri Lanka, ENERGY DEMAND, COINTEGRATION, TRENDS, UK, SEASONALITY, TESTS
Divisions: Faculty of Business, Economics and Law > Economics
Depositing User: Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited: 19 Apr 2012 12:54
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2013 19:21
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/380521

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