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Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Greece and the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks from the Countries of Tourists’ Origin

Gounopoulos, D, Petmezas, D and Santamaria, D (2012) Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Greece and the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks from the Countries of Tourists’ Origin Annals of Tourism Research, 39 (2). 641 - 666. ISSN 0160-7383

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Abstract

This study provides forecasts of tourist arrivals for the most popular destinations in Greece, using the ARIMA and Holt-Winters (H-W) forecasting models. The Holt-Winters (H-W) approach forecasts increase in tourism, while the ARIMA model yields mixed results. Furthermore, we find that the H-W model outperforms the ARIMA model in every criterion used. Additionally, we analyze the impact of unemployment shocks in the country of tourists' origin on future tourist arrivals using the Impulse Response Sims (1980) VAR model. The source of risk to future tourism arrivals originates from France, and to a lesser extent, from Germany and the Netherlands. Further, the size of the impact and duration of the response varies among destinations, offering important implications for policymakers and tourist operators.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Annals of Tourism Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Annals of Tourism Research, 39(2), April 2012, DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2011.09.001
Divisions: Faculty of Business, Economics and Law > Surrey Business School
Depositing User: Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited: 17 Aug 2012 09:12
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2013 19:04
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/153962

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