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Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting

Song, Haiyan and Li, Gang (2008) Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Management, 29 (2). ISSN 02615177

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Abstract

This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Furthermore, this study identifies some new research directions, which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination; integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, tourism cycles and seasonality analysis, events’ impact assessment and risk forecasting.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is an author-prepared PDF of an article published in Tourism Management, 29, 203–220.
Uncontrolled Keywords: tourism demand, modelling, forecasting
Divisions: Faculty of Business, Economics and Law > Hospitality and Tourism Management
Depositing User: Mr Adam Field
Date Deposited: 27 May 2010 14:37
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2013 18:31
URI: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/id/eprint/1085

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